DTW guide
What is DTW in EASHL?
DTW, short for Deserve to Win, estimates a club’s chance of winning from its recorded match performance. A 69% DTW means roughly 69 wins per 100 comparable performances.
What DTW is
DTW looks back at a played game and estimates each team’s chance of winning from shot volume, possession, passing, faceoffs, takeaways and giveaways, defensive plays, and discipline. It does not use goals, assists, saves, the score, the result, or who the players are. The two teams add up to 100%; 50% means even. How closely its percentages match real results is shown on the methodology page.
- High DTW in a loss can suggest the team played better than the score says
- Low DTW in a win can flag a result that may be hard to repeat
- DTW should be read with the number of games and the match context
What DTW is not
DTW is not a pregame forecast or a guarantee. It describes a game that has already been played, not the next one.
FAQ
Is DTW a win probability?
Yes. DTW estimates the chance of winning given the recorded non-scoring match performance. It describes how a team played, not a guarantee about one game.
Why can a team lose with a high DTW?
A team can drive play and still lose because of finishing, goalie performance, penalties, late swings, or plain luck over a handful of games.